64 research outputs found
Community-based Crisis Response: Evidence from Sierra Leone’s Ebola Outbreak
Postmortems on the recent Ebola outbreak in West Africa suggest that effective community engagement helped slow transmission by encouraging people to come forward and be tested. We evaluate the impact of Community Care Centers: a new crisis response model designed to allay fears about western medical care and, thus, encourage early reporting, isolation, and treatment. We employ new panel data on reported Ebola cases and a difference-in-difference design and find that Community Care Centers dramatically increased reporting, potentially reducing the spread of Ebola. Our results highlight how community-based efforts to increase confidence in health systems can be critical for crisis management
Kepler-68: Three Planets, One With a Density Between That of Earth and Ice Giants
NASA's Kepler Mission has revealed two transiting planets orbiting Kepler-68.
Follow-up Doppler measurements have established the mass of the innermost
planet and revealed a third jovian-mass planet orbiting beyond the two
transiting planets. Kepler-68b, in a 5.4 day orbit has mass 8.3 +/- 2.3 Earth,
radius 2.31 +/- 0.07 Earth radii, and a density of 3.32 +/- 0.92 (cgs), giving
Kepler-68b a density intermediate between that of the ice giants and Earth.
Kepler-68c is Earth-sized with a radius of 0.953 Earth and transits on a 9.6
day orbit; validation of Kepler-68c posed unique challenges. Kepler-68d has an
orbital period of 580 +/- 15 days and minimum mass of Msin(i) = 0.947 Jupiter.
Power spectra of the Kepler photometry at 1-minute cadence exhibit a rich and
strong set of asteroseismic pulsation modes enabling detailed analysis of the
stellar interior. Spectroscopy of the star coupled with asteroseismic modeling
of the multiple pulsation modes yield precise measurements of stellar
properties, notably Teff = 5793 +/- 74 K, M = 1.079 +/- 0.051 Msun, R = 1.243
+/- 0.019 Rsun, and density 0.7903 +/- 0.0054 (cgs), all measured with
fractional uncertainties of only a few percent. Models of Kepler-68b suggest it
is likely composed of rock and water, or has a H and He envelope to yield its
density of about 3 (cgs).Comment: 32 pages, 13 figures, Accepted to Ap
Planetary Candidates Observed by Kepler. VIII. A Fully Automated Catalog With Measured Completeness and Reliability Based on Data Release 25
We present the Kepler Object of Interest (KOI) catalog of transiting
exoplanets based on searching four years of Kepler time series photometry (Data
Release 25, Q1-Q17). The catalog contains 8054 KOIs of which 4034 are planet
candidates with periods between 0.25 and 632 days. Of these candidates, 219 are
new and include two in multi-planet systems (KOI-82.06 and KOI-2926.05), and
ten high-reliability, terrestrial-size, habitable zone candidates. This catalog
was created using a tool called the Robovetter which automatically vets the
DR25 Threshold Crossing Events (TCEs, Twicken et al. 2016). The Robovetter also
vetted simulated data sets and measured how well it was able to separate TCEs
caused by noise from those caused by low signal-to-noise transits. We discusses
the Robovetter and the metrics it uses to sort TCEs. For orbital periods less
than 100 days the Robovetter completeness (the fraction of simulated transits
that are determined to be planet candidates) across all observed stars is
greater than 85%. For the same period range, the catalog reliability (the
fraction of candidates that are not due to instrumental or stellar noise) is
greater than 98%. However, for low signal-to-noise candidates between 200 and
500 days around FGK dwarf stars, the Robovetter is 76.7% complete and the
catalog is 50.5% reliable. The KOI catalog, the transit fits and all of the
simulated data used to characterize this catalog are available at the NASA
Exoplanet Archive.Comment: 61 pages, 23 Figures, 9 Tables, Accepted to The Astrophysical Journal
Supplement Serie
Planetary Candidates Observed by Kepler, III: Analysis of the First 16 Months of Data
New transiting planet candidates are identified in sixteen months (May 2009 -
September 2010) of data from the Kepler spacecraft. Nearly five thousand
periodic transit-like signals are vetted against astrophysical and instrumental
false positives yielding 1,091 viable new planet candidates, bringing the total
count up to over 2,300. Improved vetting metrics are employed, contributing to
higher catalog reliability. Most notable is the noise-weighted robust averaging
of multi-quarter photo-center offsets derived from difference image analysis
which identifies likely background eclipsing binaries. Twenty-two months of
photometry are used for the purpose of characterizing each of the new
candidates. Ephemerides (transit epoch, T_0, and orbital period, P) are
tabulated as well as the products of light curve modeling: reduced radius
(Rp/R*), reduced semi-major axis (d/R*), and impact parameter (b). The largest
fractional increases are seen for the smallest planet candidates (197% for
candidates smaller than 2Re compared to 52% for candidates larger than 2Re) and
those at longer orbital periods (123% for candidates outside of 50-day orbits
versus 85% for candidates inside of 50-day orbits). The gains are larger than
expected from increasing the observing window from thirteen months (Quarter 1--
Quarter 5) to sixteen months (Quarter 1 -- Quarter 6). This demonstrates the
benefit of continued development of pipeline analysis software. The fraction of
all host stars with multiple candidates has grown from 17% to 20%, and the
paucity of short-period giant planets in multiple systems is still evident. The
progression toward smaller planets at longer orbital periods with each new
catalog release suggests that Earth-size planets in the Habitable Zone are
forthcoming if, indeed, such planets are abundant.Comment: Submitted to ApJS. Machine-readable tables are available at
http://kepler.nasa.gov, http://archive.stsci.edu/kepler/results.html, and the
NASA Exoplanet Archiv
Planet Occurrence within 0.25 AU of Solar-type Stars from Kepler
We report the distribution of planets as a function of planet radius (R_p),
orbital period (P), and stellar effective temperature (Teff) for P < 50 day
orbits around GK stars. These results are based on the 1,235 planets (formally
"planet candidates") from the Kepler mission that include a nearly complete set
of detected planets as small as 2 Earth radii (Re). For each of the 156,000
target stars we assess the detectability of planets as a function of R_p and P.
We also correct for the geometric probability of transit, R*/a. We consider
first stars within the "solar subset" having Teff = 4100-6100 K, logg =
4.0-4.9, and Kepler magnitude Kp < 15 mag. We include only those stars having
noise low enough to permit detection of planets down to 2 Re. We count planets
in small domains of R_p and P and divide by the included target stars to
calculate planet occurrence in each domain. Occurrence of planets varies by
more than three orders of magnitude and increases substantially down to the
smallest radius (2 Re) and out to the longest orbital period (50 days, ~0.25
AU) in our study. For P < 50 days, the radius distribution is given by a power
law, df/dlogR= k R^\alpha. This rapid increase in planet occurrence with
decreasing planet size agrees with core-accretion, but disagrees with
population synthesis models. We fit occurrence as a function of P to a power
law model with an exponential cutoff below a critical period P_0. For smaller
planets, P_0 has larger values, suggesting that the "parking distance" for
migrating planets moves outward with decreasing planet size. We also measured
planet occurrence over Teff = 3600-7100 K, spanning M0 to F2 dwarfs. The
occurrence of 2-4 Re planets in the Kepler field increases with decreasing
Teff, making these small planets seven times more abundant around cool stars
than the hottest stars in our sample. [abridged]Comment: Submitted to ApJ, 22 pages, 10 figure
KEPLER's First Rocky Planet: Kepler-10b
NASA's Kepler Mission uses transit photometry to determine the frequency of
earth-size planets in or near the habitable zone of Sun-like stars. The mission
reached a milestone toward meeting that goal: the discovery of its first rocky
planet, Kepler-10b. Two distinct sets of transit events were detected: 1) a 152
+/- 4 ppm dimming lasting 1.811 +/- 0.024 hours with ephemeris
T[BJD]=2454964.57375+N*0.837495 days and 2) a 376 +/- 9 ppm dimming lasting
6.86 +/- 0.07 hours with ephemeris T[BJD]=2454971.6761+N*45.29485 days.
Statistical tests on the photometric and pixel flux time series established the
viability of the planet candidates triggering ground-based follow-up
observations. Forty precision Doppler measurements were used to confirm that
the short-period transit event is due to a planetary companion. The parent star
is bright enough for asteroseismic analysis. Photometry was collected at
1-minute cadence for >4 months from which we detected 19 distinct pulsation
frequencies. Modeling the frequencies resulted in precise knowledge of the
fundamental stellar properties. Kepler-10 is a relatively old (11.9 +/- 4.5
Gyr) but otherwise Sun-like Main Sequence star with Teff=5627 +/- 44 K,
Mstar=0.895 +/- 0.060 Msun, and Rstar=1.056 +/- 0.021 Rsun. Physical models
simultaneously fit to the transit light curves and the precision Doppler
measurements yielded tight constraints on the properties of Kepler-10b that
speak to its rocky composition: Mpl=4.56 +/- 1.29 Mearth, Rpl=1.416 +/- 0.036
Rearth, and density=8.8 +/- 2.9 gcc. Kepler-10b is the smallest transiting
exoplanet discovered to date.Comment: Accepted, Astrophysical Journal, November 25, 2010; Eexpected
publication date: February 20, 201
A sub-Mercury-sized exoplanet
Since the discovery of the first exoplanet we have known that other planetary
systems can look quite unlike our own. However, until recently we have only
been able to probe the upper range of the planet size distribution. The high
precision of the Kepler space telescope has allowed us to detect planets that
are the size of Earth and somewhat smaller, but no previous planets have been
found that are smaller than those we see in our own Solar System. Here we
report the discovery of a planet significantly smaller than Mercury. This tiny
planet is the innermost of three planets that orbit the Sun-like host star,
which we have designated Kepler-37. Owing to its extremely small size, similar
to that of Earth's Moon, and highly irradiated surface, Kepler-37b is probably
a rocky planet with no atmosphere or water, similar to Mercury.Comment: Accepted and published in Nature (2013 Feb 28). This is the submitted
version of paper, merged with the Supplementary Informatio
Characteristics of planetary candidates observed by Kepler. II. Analysis of the first four months of data
On 2011 February 1 the Kepler mission released data for 156,453 stars observed from the beginning of the science observations on 2009 May 2 through September 16. There are 1235 planetary candidates with transit-like signatures detected in this period. These are associated with 997 host stars. Distributions of the characteristics of the planetary candidates are separated into five class sizes: 68 candidates of approximately Earth-size (Rp < 1.25 R⊕), 288 super-Earth-size (1.25 R⊕ ≤ R p < 2 R⊕), 662 Neptune-size (2 R ⊕ ≤ Rp < 6 R⊕), 165 Jupiter-size (6 R⊕ ≤ Rp < 15 R ⊕), and 19 up to twice the size of Jupiter (15 R ⊕ ≤ Rp < 22 R⊕). In the temperature range appropriate for the habitable zone, 54 candidates are found with sizes ranging from Earth-size to larger than that of Jupiter. Six are less than twice the size of the Earth. Over 74% of the planetary candidates are smaller than Neptune. The observed number versus size distribution of planetary candidates increases to a peak at two to three times the Earth-size and then declines inversely proportional to the area of the candidate. Our current best estimates of the intrinsic frequencies of planetary candidates, after correcting for geometric and sensitivity biases, are 5% for Earth-size candidates, 8% for super-Earth-size candidates, 18% for Neptune-size candidates, 2% for Jupiter-size candidates, and 0.1% for very large candidates; a total of 0.34 candidates per star. Multi-candidate, transiting systems are frequent; 17% of the host stars have multi-candidate systems, and 34% of all the candidates are part of multi-candidate systems
The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable-zone Planets around Solar-like Stars from Kepler Data
We present the occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZs) of main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We define η⊕ as the HZ occurrence of planets with radii between 0.5 and 1.5 R⊕ orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 and 6300 K. We find that η⊕ for the conservative HZ is between 0.37^(+0.48)_(−0.21) (errors reflect 68% credible intervals) and 0.60^(+0.90)_(−0.36) planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is between 0.58^(+0.73)_(−0.33) and 0.88^(+1.28)_(−0.51) planets per star. These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available. The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ planets. We find similar occurrence rates between using Poisson likelihood Bayesian analysis and using Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size ranges. We estimate with 95% confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ planet around G and K dwarfs is ~6 pc away and there are ~4 HZ rocky planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun
The Occurrence of Rocky Habitable Zone Planets Around Solar-Like Stars from Kepler Data
We present occurrence rates for rocky planets in the habitable zones (HZ) of
main-sequence dwarf stars based on the Kepler DR25 planet candidate catalog and
Gaia-based stellar properties. We provide the first analysis in terms of
star-dependent instellation flux, which allows us to track HZ planets. We
define as the HZ occurrence of planets with radius between 0.5
and 1.5 orbiting stars with effective temperatures between 4800 K
and 6300 K. We find that for the conservative HZ is between
(errors reflect 68\% credible intervals) and
planets per star, while the optimistic HZ occurrence is
between and planets per star.
These bounds reflect two extreme assumptions about the extrapolation of
completeness beyond orbital periods where DR25 completeness data are available.
The large uncertainties are due to the small number of detected small HZ
planets. We find similar occurrence rates using both a Poisson likelihood
Bayesian analysis and Approximate Bayesian Computation. Our results are
corrected for catalog completeness and reliability. Both completeness and the
planet occurrence rate are dependent on stellar effective temperature. We also
present occurrence rates for various stellar populations and planet size
ranges. We estimate with confidence that, on average, the nearest HZ
planet around G and K dwarfs is about 6 pc away, and there are about 4 HZ rocky
planets around G and K dwarfs within 10 pc of the Sun.Comment: To appear in The Astronomical Journa
- …